The Endgame of the Rules-Based Order
I. A Phase Shift Every international order assumes durability. Every dominant power assumes its asymmetry will persist. But asymmetry is not permanent. It is accumulated. The rules-based order that defined the post–Cold War era is entering late-stage unipolarity—not because of ideology, and not because of leadership temperament, but because the structural influence that sustained it is narrowing. When influence narrows, incentives change. When incentives change, behavior follows. This is not a moral argument. It is a structural one. ...